肺研周见

A Pyrrhic Response

皮洛士式应答

Jun Zhao / 赵军

数据挖掘会系列观点文集-03

EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) have altered the natural history of EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer, yet acquired resistance remains almost inevitable.[1] Persistent therapeutic pressure reshapes tumour ecology: sensitive clones are suppressed, resistant clones undergo competitive release, and the latter gradually become the dominant population.[1] This process bears a subtle resemblance to a classic problem in artificial-intelligence training. Reinforcement learning can enable a model to maximise a specified reward without ensuring that it has learned the objective humans actually intended.[2] Similarly, anticancer treatment can minimise tumour burden without preventing the tumour from maximising its own fitness within the newly imposed selective environment.

EGFR-TKI 改变了 EGFR 突变非小细胞肺癌的自然史,但获得性耐药几乎不可避免[1]。究其原因是持续治疗压力会重塑肿瘤生态:敏感克隆被抑制,耐药克隆获得竞争释放,并逐渐成为新的优势群体[1]。这个过程与人工智能训练中的一个经典困境有微妙相似之处:强化学习可以让模型最大化奖励(reward maximization),却未必保证模型学会人类真正想要的目标[2];抗肿瘤治疗也可以最大限度降低肿瘤负荷,却未必阻止肿瘤在新的选择环境中最大化自身适应度。

The analogy may appear abstract, but it exposes a question in cancer treatment that has long been underestimated: are we treating the tumour, or training it? Conventional treatment emphasises maximal tumour-cell killing, aiming for rapid radiographic shrinkage, prompt declines in tumour markers, and early symptom relief. From an evolutionary perspective, however, treatment is also a selective pressure. Every exposure changes the relative survival prospects of competing clones within the tumour. The more effective the treatment, the more rapidly it may eliminate sensitive clones; the cells left behind may be precisely those best adapted to the current drug environment.

这一类比看似抽象,却触及肿瘤治疗中一个长期被低估的问题:我们究竟是在治疗肿瘤,还是在训练肿瘤?传统治疗强调最大程度杀伤肿瘤细胞,目标是让影像学病灶尽快缩小、肿瘤标志物尽快下降、症状尽快缓解。但在演化视角下,治疗同时也是一种选择压力。每一次用药都在改变肿瘤内部不同克隆的相对生存机会:治疗越有效,越可能迅速清除敏感克隆;而留下来的,恰恰可能是最能适应当前药物环境的细胞。

If a tumour is an evolving ecosystem, the objective of treatment should extend beyond reducing tumour burden to reshaping the tumour fitness landscape. Adaptive therapy is the clearest clinical expression of this idea.[3] Rather than treating eradication as the sole objective, it seeks—while tumour burden remains controllable—to preserve a population of drug-sensitive clones that can continue to compete with resistant clones.[4] In an adaptive abiraterone study in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, for example, treatment was started and stopped dynamically according to changes in prostate-specific antigen, with the aim of delaying expansion of resistant clones by retaining sensitive competitors.[4]

如果肿瘤是一个演化中的生态系统,那么治疗目标就不应仅仅是降低肿瘤负荷,还应包括重写肿瘤的适应度格局。自适应治疗(adaptive therapy)正是这一思想最清晰的临床版本[3]。它并不把“清零”作为唯一目标,而是在肿瘤负荷可控的前提下,保留一部分药物敏感克隆,使其继续与耐药克隆竞争[4]。例如,在转移性去势抵抗性前列腺癌的阿比特龙自适应治疗研究中,研究者根据 PSA 变化动态启停治疗,尝试以保留敏感克隆的方式延缓耐药克隆扩张[4]。

At a simplified level, this interaction can be considered as a Nash-like equilibrium between sensitive and resistant clones. Under some treatment conditions, the system need not move inexorably towards complete replacement of one population by the other; a controllable zone of coexistence might instead be possible. Within this zone, sensitive clones remain sufficiently abundant to constrain resistant-clone expansion, while the total tumour burden remains clinically controlled. The therapeutic task is then neither simply to intensify pressure nor to remove it completely, but to recalibrate it—through dose reduction, intermittent treatment, combination therapy, altered sequencing, local ablation of dominant resistant lesions, or closer dynamic monitoring.

如果进一步简化,可以引入一个类似的敏感克隆与耐药克隆双方博弈的“纳什均衡”:在某些治疗条件下,二者也许并非只能走向“一方彻底取代另一方”,而可能存在一个可控共存区间。在这一区间内,敏感克隆仍足以限制耐药克隆扩张,总体肿瘤负荷也尚未失控。此时,治疗的关键不是简单地继续加压,也不是完全撤除压力,而是重新校准治疗压力:可以是减量、间歇、联合、换序贯方案、局部清除优势耐药灶,或加强动态监测。

The more difficult problem, however, is not imagining this equilibrium but detecting it. Imaging captures the resulting tumour burden; serum tumour markers provide only a relatively coarse account of its trajectory. Circulating tumour DNA might offer earlier clonal signals: whether resistance mutations are emerging, whether the original driver clone remains dominant, and whether the relative abundance of different clones is changing directionally.[5,6] Yet this measure remains imperfect. Low tumour burden, limited DNA shedding, isolated brain metastases, and localised progression can all reduce its sensitivity.[3] The future priority is therefore not only to develop more potent drugs, but also to establish monitoring systems capable of reading the tumour ecosystem dynamically.

然而,真正困难的不是想象这个均衡点,而是感知它。影像学看到的是肿瘤负荷的结果,血清肿瘤标志物看到的是较粗的动态趋势,ctDNA 可能提供更早的克隆层面信号:耐药突变是否正在出现,原有驱动克隆是否仍占主导,不同克隆之间的比例是否正在发生方向性改变[5,6]。但这个指标目前仍然不完美,低肿瘤负荷、低释放、单纯脑转移或局部进展都可能降低其敏感性[3]。因此,未来的关键不只是开发更强的药物,而是建立一套能够动态读取肿瘤生态状态的监测系统。

References / 参考文献

  1. Zhao J, Xu W, Zhou F, et al. Navigating the landscape of EGFR TKI resistance in EGFR-mutant NSCLC—mechanisms and evolving treatment approaches. Nat Rev Clin Oncol. 2026;23(1):63–83. doi:10.1038/s41571-025-01085-z.

  2. J S, NHR H, D K, et al. Defining and characterizing reward hacking. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. 2022;35:9460–9471.

  3. Rolfo C, Mack P, Scagliotti GV, et al. Liquid biopsy for advanced NSCLC: a consensus statement from the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. J Thorac Oncol. 2021;16(10):1647–1662. doi:10.1016/j.jtho.2021.06.017.

  4. Zhang J, Cunningham JJ, Brown JS, et al. Integrating evolutionary dynamics into treatment of metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer. Nat Commun. 2017;8(1):1816. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01968-5.

  5. Imamura F, Uchida J, Kukita Y, et al. Monitoring of treatment responses and clonal evolution of tumor cells by circulating tumor DNA of heterogeneous mutant EGFR genes in lung cancer. Lung Cancer. 2016;94:68–73. doi:10.1016/j.lungcan.2016.01.023.

  6. Remon J, Besse B, Aix SP, et al. Osimertinib treatment based on plasma T790M monitoring in patients with EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer: EORTC Lung Cancer Group 1613 APPLE phase II randomized clinical trial. Ann Oncol. 2023;34(5):468–476. doi:10.1016/j.annonc.2023.02.012.

Title note / 题注: “Pyrrhic” refers to a victory achieved at such a high cost that it may ultimately amount to defeat. The expression derives from Pyrrhus, king of Epirus, whose costly victories over Rome in the third century BCE could not be sustained.
“皮洛士式胜利”指以过高代价换来的胜利,甚至因此接近失败。典故源于古希腊伊庇鲁斯国王皮洛士;他在公元前 3 世纪与罗马交战时虽获胜,却因伤亡惨重而难以为继。